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Premier League · Matchday 24Saturday 6 February · 15:00 · Craven Cottage
Fulham15th place
Rinvalo prediction0-1Medium confidence
Manchester City2nd place
FUL 21%X 25%MCI 54%

Prediction

Key factors
  • Manchester City lead by 195 rating points.
  • Manchester City take 2.1 points per game away.
  • If Fulham score first, they win 51% of the time
  • If Manchester City score first, they win 78% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 7%
Expected goals1.0 – 1.7
Over 2.551%
Both teams score53%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 0-1 is the likeliest score within a Manchester City win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
121%4.71X25%4.01254%1.86
Double chance
1X46%2.17X279%1.271275%1.33
Goals
Over 2.551%1.95Under 2.549%2.05BTTS yes53%1.90BTTS no47%2.11

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Fulham · Columns: Manchester City1-1 probability 12.1%

Form

Compare →

Head to head

Manchester City – Fulham11 February 20263-0
Fulham – Manchester City2 December 20254-5
Fulham – Manchester City25 May 20250-2
Manchester City – Fulham5 October 20243-2
Fulham – Manchester City11 May 20240-4
Manchester City – Fulham2 September 20235-1