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Premier League · Matchday 24Saturday 6 February · 15:00 · Stadium of Light
Sunderland20th place
Rinvalo prediction0-1Low confidence
Aston Villa10th place
SUN 32%X 28%AVL 40%

Prediction

Key factors
  • Last 5 games: Aston Villa 2.2 points per game, Sunderland 0.2.
  • Aston Villa lead by 114 rating points.
  • If Sunderland score first, they win 63% of the time
  • If Aston Villa score first, they win 69% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 8%
Expected goals1.2 – 1.4
Over 2.548%
Both teams score53%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 0-1 is the likeliest score within a Aston Villa win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
132%3.09X28%3.61240%2.51
Double chance
1X60%1.66X268%1.481272%1.38
Goals
Over 2.548%2.09Under 2.552%1.92BTTS yes53%1.87BTTS no47%2.15

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Sunderland · Columns: Aston Villa1-1 probability 13.4%

Form

Compare →

Head to head

Aston Villa – Sunderland19 April 20264-3
Sunderland – Aston Villa21 September 20251-1