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Premier League · Matchday 24Saturday 6 February · 15:00 · Elland Road
Leeds United12th place
Rinvalo prediction0-1Low confidence
Bournemouth8th place
LEE 31%X 28%BOU 41%

Prediction

Key factors
  • Last 5 games: Bournemouth 1.8 points per game, Leeds United 0.6.
  • Bournemouth lead by 68 rating points.
  • xG difference over the last 10: Bournemouth 0.5, Leeds United -0.3.
  • If Leeds United score first, they win 62% of the time
  • If Bournemouth score first, they win 70% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 9%
Expected goals1.2 – 1.4
Over 2.547%
Both teams score52%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 0-1 is the likeliest score within a Bournemouth win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
131%3.24X28%3.51241%2.46
Double chance
1X59%1.69X269%1.451272%1.40
Goals
Over 2.547%2.15Under 2.553%1.87BTTS yes52%1.91BTTS no48%2.09

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Leeds United · Columns: Bournemouth1-1 probability 13.5%

Form

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Head to head

Bournemouth – Leeds United31 October 20262-0
Bournemouth – Leeds United22 April 20262-2
Leeds United – Bournemouth27 September 20252-2
Bournemouth – Leeds United30 April 20234-1
Leeds United – Bournemouth5 November 20224-3