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Premier League · Matchday 24Saturday 6 February · 15:00 · Old Trafford
Manchester United17th place
Rinvalo prediction2-1Medium confidence
Chelsea4th place
MUN 45%X 27%CHE 29%

Prediction

  • If Manchester United score first, they win 71% of the time
  • If Chelsea score first, they win 57% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 5%
Expected goals1.7 – 1.3
Over 2.559%
Both teams score61%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 2-1 is the likeliest score within a Manchester United win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
145%2.24X27%3.76229%3.48
Double chance
1X71%1.40X255%1.811273%1.36
Goals
Over 2.559%1.69Under 2.541%2.44BTTS yes61%1.63BTTS no39%2.59

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Manchester United · Columns: Chelsea1-1 probability 11.6%

Form

Compare →

Head to head

Chelsea – Manchester United31 October 20262-0
Chelsea – Manchester United18 April 20260-1
Manchester United – Chelsea20 September 20252-1
Chelsea – Manchester United16 May 20251-0
Manchester United – Chelsea3 November 20241-1
Chelsea – Manchester United4 April 20244-3