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Serie A · Matchday 27Sunday 7 March · 17:30 · Stadio Olimpico
Lazio1st place
Rinvalo prediction2-1High confidence
Frosinone6th place
LAZ 63%X 21%FRO 15%

Prediction

Key factors
  • Lazio lead by 115 rating points.
  • Last 5 games: Lazio 3.0 points per game, Frosinone 2.0.
  • xG difference over the last 10: Lazio 0.5, Frosinone -0.4.
  • If Lazio score first, they win 83% of the time
  • If Frosinone score first, they win 40% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 4%
Expected goals2.2 – 1.0
Over 2.563%
Both teams score58%
Likeliest score2-1
Probabilities and fair odds
Result
163%1.58X21%4.66215%6.53
Double chance
1X85%1.18X237%2.721279%1.27
Goals
Over 2.563%1.58Under 2.537%2.72BTTS yes58%1.72BTTS no42%2.39

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Lazio · Columns: Frosinone2-1 probability 9.8%

Form

Compare →
LazioWWWWW

Head to head

Frosinone – Lazio16 March 20242-3
Lazio – Frosinone29 December 20233-1