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Serie A · Matchday 27Sunday 7 March · 17:30 · Stadio Giuseppe Meazza
Milan5th place
Rinvalo prediction1-0High confidence
Cagliari12th place
MIL 62%X 23%CAG 15%

Prediction

Key factors
  • Milan lead by 177 rating points.
  • Last 5 games: Milan 2.0 points per game, Cagliari 0.2.
  • xG difference over the last 10: Milan 0.5, Cagliari -0.6.
  • If Milan score first, they win 84% of the time
  • If Cagliari score first, they win 43% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 8%
Expected goals1.9 – 0.8
Over 2.550%
Both teams score47%
Likeliest score1-0
Probabilities and fair odds
Result
162%1.61X23%4.32215%6.85
Double chance
1X85%1.17X238%2.651277%1.30
Goals
Over 2.550%2.00Under 2.550%2.00BTTS yes47%2.11BTTS no53%1.90

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Milan · Columns: Cagliari1-0 probability 12.2%

Form

Compare →
MilanDWWLW

Head to head

Milan – Cagliari24 May 20261-2
Cagliari – Milan2 January 20260-1
Milan – Cagliari11 January 20251-1
Cagliari – Milan9 November 20243-3
Milan – Cagliari11 May 20245-1
Cagliari – Milan27 September 20231-3