TR
Picks
Tue 17:45GS2-1VFB43%Tue 17:45SHA1-2SCP46%Tue 19:45BLB1-0STK41%Tue 19:45CHA1-0BOL41%Tue 19:45DER1-2NOR43%Tue 19:45POR1-0SWA39%Tue 19:45PNE0-1SHU42%Tue 19:45QPR2-1BUR50%Tue 19:45WAT1-0LIN38%Tue 20:00BIR1-0MIL45%Tue 20:00WBA0-1SOU42%Tue 20:00ATM1-2FCB54%Tue 20:00BAR2-1AVL52%Tue 20:00BOD2-1LIL59%Tue 20:00FEY1-2INT47%Tue 20:00LAS2-1SLO61%Tue 20:00MUN1-2ROM40%Tue 20:00VIL0-2PSG69%Wed 15:30REN2-1OLY42%Wed 17:45AEK1-2RMA59%Wed 17:45FB1-2LIV48%Wed 19:45CAR1-2WHU48%Wed 19:45WRE1-2MID52%Wed 20:00BRC0-1WOL40%
Serie A · Matchday 27Sunday 7 March · 17:30 · U-Power Stadium
Monza16th place
Rinvalo prediction1-2Low confidence
Genoa11th place
MON 35%X 28%GEN 38%

Prediction

Key factors
  • Genoa lead by 117 rating points.
  • Last 5 games: Genoa 2.4 points per game, Monza 0.6.
  • If Monza score first, they win 64% of the time
  • If Genoa score first, they win 66% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 7%
Expected goals1.4 – 1.4
Over 2.553%
Both teams score57%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 1-2 is the likeliest score within a Genoa win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
135%2.90X28%3.60238%2.65
Double chance
1X62%1.61X265%1.531272%1.38
Goals
Over 2.553%1.90Under 2.547%2.11BTTS yes57%1.75BTTS no43%2.33

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Monza · Columns: Genoa1-1 probability 12.8%

Form

Compare →
MonzaLWLLL
GenoaWLWWW

Head to head

Genoa – Monza27 January 20252-0
Monza – Genoa24 August 20240-1
Genoa – Monza9 March 20242-3
Monza – Genoa10 December 20231-0