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Serie A · Matchday 27Sunday 7 March · 17:30 · Stadio Diego Armando Maradona
Napoli8th place
Rinvalo prediction1-0High confidence
Parma18th place
NAP 67%X 22%PAR 11%

Prediction

Key factors
  • Napoli lead by 191 rating points.
  • xG difference over the last 10: Napoli 0.5, Parma -0.7.
  • If Napoli score first, they win 88% of the time
  • If Parma score first, they win 41% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 10%
Expected goals1.8 – 0.6
Over 2.543%
Both teams score38%
Likeliest score1-0
Probabilities and fair odds
Result
167%1.49X22%4.64211%8.99
Double chance
1X89%1.13X233%3.061278%1.28
Goals
Over 2.543%2.32Under 2.557%1.76BTTS yes38%2.66BTTS no62%1.60

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Napoli · Columns: Parma1-0 probability 15.8%

Form

Compare →
NapoliWLDWL
ParmaWLLLD

Head to head

Parma – Napoli12 April 20261-1
Napoli – Parma14 January 20260-0
Parma – Napoli18 May 20250-0
Napoli – Parma31 August 20242-1