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Serie A · Matchday 23Sunday 7 February · 17:30 · Stadio Via del mare
Lecce14th place
Rinvalo prediction0-1High confidence
Napoli8th place
LEC 17%X 23%NAP 60%

Prediction

Key factors
  • Napoli lead by 192 rating points.
  • xG difference over the last 10: Napoli 0.5, Lecce -0.6.
  • If Lecce score first, they win 46% of the time
  • If Napoli score first, they win 83% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 8%
Expected goals0.8 – 1.8
Over 2.548%
Both teams score47%
Likeliest score0-1
Probabilities and fair odds
Result
117%5.88X23%4.36260%1.67
Double chance
1X40%2.50X283%1.211277%1.30
Goals
Over 2.548%2.08Under 2.552%1.93BTTS yes47%2.12BTTS no53%1.89

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Lecce · Columns: Napoli0-1 probability 12.5%

Form

Compare →
LecceLWLLL
NapoliWLDWL

Head to head

Napoli – Lecce14 March 20262-1
Lecce – Napoli28 October 20250-1
Lecce – Napoli3 May 20250-1
Napoli – Lecce26 October 20241-0
Napoli – Lecce26 May 20240-0
Lecce – Napoli30 September 20230-4