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Serie A · Matchday 7Sunday 18 October · 17:00 · Stadio Giuseppe Meazza
Milan5th place
Full time3-2Rinvalo's pick: 1-0✓ Result correct
Atalanta13th place
MIL 49%X 28%ATA 24%

What does the market say?

MilanDrawAtalantaRinvalo49%28%24%
Market52%25%23%

✓ Agree · both back Milan

Prediction

Predicted: 1-0
Key factors
  • Last 5 games: Milan 2.2 points per game, Atalanta 1.2.
  • xG difference over the last 10: Milan 0.0, Atalanta -0.6.
  • If Milan score first, they win 76% of the time
  • If Atalanta score first, they win 56% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 9%
Expected goals1.5 – 1.0
Over 2.545%
Both teams score49%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 1-0 is the likeliest score within a Milan win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
149%2.06X28%3.62224%4.20
Double chance
1X76%1.31X251%1.941272%1.38
Goals
Over 2.545%2.21Under 2.555%1.82BTTS yes49%2.02BTTS no51%1.98

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Milan · Columns: Atalanta3-2 probability 2.3% · final score

Form

Compare →
MilanDWWLW

Head to head

Milan – Atalanta18 October 20263-2
Milan – Atalanta10 May 20262-3
Atalanta – Milan28 October 20251-1
Milan – Atalanta20 April 20250-1
Atalanta – Milan6 December 20242-1
Milan – Atalanta25 February 20241-1