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Serie A · Matchday 7Saturday 17 October · 14:00 · Stadio Pierluigi Penzo
Venezia20th place
Full time1-0Rinvalo's pick: 0-2✕ Missed
Napoli8th place
VEN 12%X 18%NAP 69%

What does the market say?

VeneziaDrawNapoliRinvalo12%18%69%
Market20%24%56%

✓ Agree · both back Napoli

Prediction

Predicted: 0-2
Key factors
  • Napoli lead by 271 rating points.
  • Last 5 games: Napoli 1.4 points per game, Venezia 0.0.
  • xG difference over the last 10: Napoli 0.3, Venezia -0.5.
  • If Venezia score first, they win 36% of the time
  • If Napoli score first, they win 87% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 6%
Expected goals0.8 – 2.2
Over 2.556%
Both teams score48%
Likeliest score0-2
Probabilities and fair odds
Result
112%8.24X18%5.41269%1.44
Double chance
1X31%3.27X288%1.141282%1.23
Goals
Over 2.556%1.79Under 2.544%2.27BTTS yes48%2.09BTTS no52%1.92

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Venezia · Columns: Napoli1-0 probability 3.5% · final score

Form

Compare →
VeneziaLWLLL
NapoliWLDWL

Head to head

Venezia – Napoli17 October 20261-0
Venezia – Napoli16 March 20250-0
Napoli – Venezia29 December 20241-0
Venezia – Napoli6 February 20220-2
Napoli – Venezia22 August 20212-0