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Serie A · Matchday 7Sunday 18 October · 11:30 · Bluenergy Stadium
Udinese19th place
Full time0-3Rinvalo's pick: 1-0✕ Missed
Lecce14th place
UDI 55%X 26%LEC 18%

What does the market say?

UdineseDrawLecceRinvalo55%26%18%
Market50%27%23%

✓ Agree · both back Udinese

Prediction

Predicted: 1-0
Key factors
  • Udinese lead by 61 rating points.
  • xG difference over the last 10: Udinese -0.1, Lecce -0.7.
  • If Udinese score first, they win 81% of the time
  • If Lecce score first, they win 51% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 10%
Expected goals1.6 – 0.8
Over 2.542%
Both teams score44%
Likeliest score1-0
Probabilities and fair odds
Result
155%1.80X26%3.82218%5.43
Double chance
1X82%1.23X245%2.241274%1.35
Goals
Over 2.542%2.36Under 2.558%1.74BTTS yes44%2.25BTTS no56%1.80

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Udinese · Columns: Lecce0-3 probability 0.8% · final score

Form

Compare →
UdineseLLLDL
LecceLWLLL

Head to head

Udinese – Lecce18 October 20260-3
Lecce – Udinese8 February 20262-1
Udinese – Lecce25 October 20253-2
Lecce – Udinese21 February 20250-1
Udinese – Lecce5 October 20241-0
Lecce – Udinese13 May 20240-2