TR
Picks
Tue 17:45GS2-1VFB43%Tue 17:45SHA1-2SCP46%Tue 19:45BLB1-0STK41%Tue 19:45CHA1-0BOL41%Tue 19:45DER1-2NOR43%Tue 19:45POR1-0SWA39%Tue 19:45PNE0-1SHU42%Tue 19:45QPR2-1BUR50%Tue 19:45WAT1-0LIN38%Tue 20:00BIR1-0MIL45%Tue 20:00WBA0-1SOU42%Tue 20:00ATM1-2FCB54%Tue 20:00BAR2-1AVL52%Tue 20:00BOD2-1LIL59%Tue 20:00FEY1-2INT47%Tue 20:00LAS2-1SLO61%Tue 20:00MUN1-2ROM40%Tue 20:00VIL0-2PSG69%Wed 15:30REN2-1OLY42%Wed 17:45AEK1-2RMA59%Wed 17:45FB1-2LIV48%Wed 19:45CAR1-2WHU48%Wed 19:45WRE1-2MID52%Wed 20:00BRC0-1WOL40%
Serie A · Matchday 7Monday 19 October · 17:30 · U-Power Stadium
Monza16th place
Full time4-0Rinvalo's pick: 1-0✓ Result correct
Cagliari12th place
MON 37%X 28%CAG 35%

What does the market say?

MonzaDrawCagliariRinvalo37%28%35%
Market40%30%31%

✓ Agree · both back Monza

Prediction

Predicted: 1-0
  • If Monza score first, they win 66% of the time
  • If Cagliari score first, they win 65% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 8%
Expected goals1.3 – 1.3
Over 2.549%
Both teams score54%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 1-0 is the likeliest score within a Monza win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
137%2.73X28%3.57235%2.83
Double chance
1X65%1.55X263%1.581272%1.39
Goals
Over 2.549%2.05Under 2.551%1.96BTTS yes54%1.84BTTS no46%2.19

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Monza · Columns: Cagliari4-0 probability 0.9% · final score

Form

Compare →
MonzaLWLLL

Head to head

Monza – Cagliari19 October 20264-0
Cagliari – Monza30 March 20253-0
Monza – Cagliari5 January 20251-2
Monza – Cagliari16 March 20241-0
Cagliari – Monza26 November 20231-1