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Picks
Tue 17:45GS2-1VFB43%Tue 17:45SHA1-2SCP46%Tue 19:45BLB1-0STK41%Tue 19:45CHA1-0BOL41%Tue 19:45DER1-2NOR43%Tue 19:45POR1-0SWA39%Tue 19:45PNE0-1SHU42%Tue 19:45QPR2-1BUR50%Tue 19:45WAT1-0LIN38%Tue 20:00BIR1-0MIL45%Tue 20:00WBA0-1SOU42%Tue 20:00ATM1-2FCB54%Tue 20:00BAR2-1AVL52%Tue 20:00BOD2-1LIL59%Tue 20:00FEY1-2INT47%Tue 20:00LAS2-1SLO61%Tue 20:00MUN1-2ROM40%Tue 20:00VIL0-2PSG69%Wed 15:30REN2-1OLY42%Wed 17:45AEK1-2RMA59%Wed 17:45FB1-2LIV48%Wed 19:45CAR1-2WHU48%Wed 19:45WRE1-2MID52%Wed 20:00BRC0-1WOL40%
Serie A · Matchday 7Saturday 17 October · 19:45 · Stadio Olimpico
Roma3rd place
Full time2-0Rinvalo's pick: 2-0✓ Exact score
Genoa11th place
ROM 70%X 20%GEN 10%

What does the market say?

RomaDrawGenoaRinvalo70%20%10%
Market65%21%14%

✓ Agree · both back Roma

Prediction

Predicted: 2-0
Key factors
  • Roma lead by 249 rating points.
  • Last 5 games: Roma 2.6 points per game, Genoa 0.2.
  • xG difference over the last 10: Roma 1.4, Genoa -0.6.
  • If Roma score first, they win 89% of the time
  • If Genoa score first, they win 36% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 7%
Expected goals2.0 – 0.6
Over 2.550%
Both teams score41%
Likeliest score2-0
Probabilities and fair odds
Result
170%1.43X20%5.02210%10.06
Double chance
1X90%1.11X230%3.351280%1.25
Goals
Over 2.550%1.99Under 2.550%2.01BTTS yes41%2.41BTTS no59%1.71

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Roma · Columns: Genoa2-0 probability 14.4% · final score

Form

Compare →
RomaDWDWW
GenoaWLWWW

Head to head

Roma – Genoa17 October 20262-0
Genoa – Roma8 March 20262-1
Roma – Genoa29 December 20253-1
Roma – Genoa17 January 20253-1
Genoa – Roma15 September 20241-1
Roma – Genoa19 May 20241-0