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Serie A · Matchday 36Sunday 16 May · 17:30 · Stadio Giuseppe Meazza
Milan5th place
Rinvalo prediction1-2Low confidence
Roma3rd place
MIL 33%X 27%ROM 40%

Prediction

Key factors
  • Roma lead by 81 rating points.
  • Roma take 2.0 points per game away.
  • If Milan score first, they win 62% of the time
  • If Roma score first, they win 68% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 7%
Expected goals1.3 – 1.5
Over 2.552%
Both teams score57%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 1-2 is the likeliest score within a Roma win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
133%3.01X27%3.68240%2.52
Double chance
1X60%1.66X267%1.501273%1.37
Goals
Over 2.552%1.92Under 2.548%2.09BTTS yes57%1.76BTTS no43%2.31

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Milan · Columns: Roma1-1 probability 12.8%

Form

Compare →
MilanDWWLW
RomaDWDWW

Head to head

Roma – Milan25 January 20261-1
Milan – Roma2 November 20251-0
Roma – Milan18 May 20253-1
Milan – Roma29 December 20241-1
Milan – Roma14 January 20243-1
Roma – Milan1 September 20231-2