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Tue 17:45GS2-1VFB43%Tue 17:45SHA1-2SCP46%Tue 19:45BLB1-0STK41%Tue 19:45CHA1-0BOL41%Tue 19:45DER1-2NOR43%Tue 19:45POR1-0SWA39%Tue 19:45PNE0-1SHU42%Tue 19:45QPR2-1BUR50%Tue 19:45WAT1-0LIN38%Tue 20:00BIR1-0MIL45%Tue 20:00WBA0-1SOU42%Tue 20:00ATM1-2FCB54%Tue 20:00BAR2-1AVL52%Tue 20:00BOD2-1LIL59%Tue 20:00FEY1-2INT47%Tue 20:00LAS2-1SLO61%Tue 20:00MUN1-2ROM40%Tue 20:00VIL0-2PSG69%Wed 15:30REN2-1OLY42%Wed 17:45AEK1-2RMA59%Wed 17:45FB1-2LIV48%Wed 19:45CAR1-2WHU48%Wed 19:45WRE1-2MID52%Wed 20:00BRC0-1WOL40%
Serie A · Matchday 36Sunday 16 May · 17:30 · U-Power Stadium
Monza16th place
Rinvalo prediction1-0Low confidence
Parma18th place
MON 41%X 28%PAR 30%

Prediction

Key factors
  • xG difference over the last 10: Monza 0.1, Parma -0.7.
  • If Monza score first, they win 71% of the time
  • If Parma score first, they win 62% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 9%
Expected goals1.4 – 1.2
Over 2.546%
Both teams score52%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 1-0 is the likeliest score within a Monza win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
141%2.44X28%3.51230%3.28
Double chance
1X70%1.44X259%1.701272%1.40
Goals
Over 2.546%2.16Under 2.554%1.87BTTS yes52%1.92BTTS no48%2.09

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Monza · Columns: Parma1-1 probability 13.5%

Form

Compare →
MonzaLWLLL
ParmaWLLLD

Head to head

Parma – Monza6 September 20261-1
Monza – Parma15 March 20251-1
Parma – Monza28 December 20242-1