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Serie A · Matchday 36Sunday 16 May · 17:30 · Stadio Diego Armando Maradona
Napoli8th place
Rinvalo prediction1-0High confidence
Genoa11th place
NAP 60%X 25%GEN 16%

Prediction

Key factors
  • Napoli lead by 126 rating points.
  • xG difference over the last 10: Napoli 0.5, Genoa -0.4.
  • If Napoli score first, they win 84% of the time
  • If Genoa score first, they win 47% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 9%
Expected goals1.7 – 0.8
Over 2.545%
Both teams score44%
Likeliest score1-0
Probabilities and fair odds
Result
160%1.68X25%4.05216%6.37
Double chance
1X84%1.19X240%2.481275%1.33
Goals
Over 2.545%2.24Under 2.555%1.81BTTS yes44%2.26BTTS no56%1.79

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Napoli · Columns: Genoa1-0 probability 13.8%

Form

Compare →
NapoliWLDWL
GenoaWLWWW

Head to head

Genoa – Napoli22 August 20260-2
Genoa – Napoli7 February 20262-3
Napoli – Genoa5 October 20252-1
Napoli – Genoa11 May 20252-2
Genoa – Napoli21 December 20241-2
Napoli – Genoa17 February 20241-1