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Championship · Matchday 24Tuesday 29 December · 20:15 · St. Mary's Stadium
Southampton2nd place
Rinvalo prediction2-1High confidence
West Ham8th place
SOU 55%X 24%WHU 21%

Prediction

Key factors
  • Southampton lead by 133 rating points.
  • Last 5 games: Southampton 2.6 points per game, West Ham 1.4.
  • Southampton take 2.4 points per game at home.
  • If Southampton score first, they win 77% of the time
  • If West Ham score first, they win 46% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 3%
Expected goals2.3 – 1.4
Over 2.572%
Both teams score69%
Likeliest score2-1
Probabilities and fair odds
Result
155%1.81X24%4.18221%4.83
Double chance
1X79%1.26X245%2.241276%1.31
Goals
Over 2.572%1.39Under 2.528%3.53BTTS yes69%1.46BTTS no31%3.19

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Southampton · Columns: West Ham2-1 probability 9.1%

Form

Compare →

Head to head

West Ham – Southampton24 October 20262-3
West Ham – Southampton19 April 20251-1
Southampton – West Ham26 December 20240-1
West Ham – Southampton2 April 20231-0
Southampton – West Ham16 October 20221-1
West Ham – Southampton26 December 20212-3