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Championship · Matchday 18Sunday 29 November · 12:00 · Swansea.com Stadium
Swansea City3rd place
Rinvalo prediction1-0Medium confidence
Cardiff City17th place
SWA 55%X 25%CAR 20%

Prediction

Key factors
  • Swansea City lead by 135 rating points.
  • Derby match.
  • If Swansea City score first, they win 79% of the time
  • If Cardiff City score first, they win 50% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 7%
Expected goals1.8 – 1.0
Over 2.552%
Both teams score53%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 1-0 is the likeliest score within a Swansea City win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
155%1.83X25%4.00220%4.90
Double chance
1X80%1.26X245%2.201275%1.33
Goals
Over 2.552%1.93Under 2.548%2.07BTTS yes53%1.89BTTS no47%2.12

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Swansea City · Columns: Cardiff City1-1 probability 11.9%

Form

Compare →

Head to head

Cardiff City – Swansea City18 January 20253-0
Swansea City – Cardiff City25 August 20241-1
Swansea City – Cardiff City16 March 20242-0
Cardiff City – Swansea City16 September 20232-0
Cardiff City – Swansea City1 April 20232-3
Swansea City – Cardiff City23 October 20222-0