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La Liga · Matchday 31Sunday 11 April · 16:00 · Estadio de la Cerámica
Villarreal9th place
Rinvalo prediction1-0Medium confidence
Athletic Bilbao7th place
VIL 52%X 26%ATH 22%

Prediction

Key factors
  • xG difference over the last 10: Villarreal 1.1, Athletic Bilbao 0.4.
  • If Villarreal score first, they win 77% of the time
  • If Athletic Bilbao score first, they win 52% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 7%
Expected goals1.7 – 1.0
Over 2.552%
Both teams score54%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 1-0 is the likeliest score within a Villarreal win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
152%1.94X26%3.82222%4.50
Double chance
1X78%1.29X248%2.071274%1.36
Goals
Over 2.552%1.94Under 2.548%2.06BTTS yes54%1.86BTTS no46%2.16

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Villarreal · Columns: Athletic Bilbao1-1 probability 12.2%

Form

Compare →

Head to head

Athletic Bilbao – Villarreal12 April 20261-2
Villarreal – Athletic Bilbao27 September 20251-0
Villarreal – Athletic Bilbao6 April 20250-0
Athletic Bilbao – Villarreal8 December 20242-0
Athletic Bilbao – Villarreal14 April 20241-1
Villarreal – Athletic Bilbao5 November 20232-3