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Championship · Matchday 33Sunday 21 February · 12:00 · London Stadium
West Ham8th place
Rinvalo prediction2-1Medium confidence
Millwall12th place
WHU 46%X 26%MIL 28%

Prediction

Key factors
  • Derby match.
  • If West Ham score first, they win 70% of the time
  • If Millwall score first, they win 55% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 4%
Expected goals1.9 – 1.4
Over 2.564%
Both teams score65%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 2-1 is the likeliest score within a West Ham win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
146%2.20X26%3.81228%3.54
Double chance
1X72%1.39X255%1.831274%1.36
Goals
Over 2.564%1.56Under 2.536%2.79BTTS yes65%1.53BTTS no35%2.88

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: West Ham · Columns: Millwall1-1 probability 10.6%

Form

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Head to head

Millwall – West Ham19 September 20262-2