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Picks
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Championship · Matchday 11Saturday 17 October · 15:00 · SToK Cae Ras
Wrexham18th place
Full time4-1Prediction correct
Preston North End24th place
WRE 51%X 27%PNE 22%

What does the market say?

WrexhamDrawPreston North EndRinvalo51%27%22%
Market56%25%20%

✓ Agree · both back Wrexham

Prediction

Predicted: 1-0
Key factors
  • Wrexham lead by 122 rating points.
  • Last 5 games: Wrexham 1.6 points per game, Preston North End 0.8.
  • If Wrexham score first, they win 77% of the time
  • If Preston North End score first, they win 52% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 7%
Expected goals1.7 – 1.0
Over 2.551%
Both teams score53%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 1-0 is the likeliest score within a Wrexham win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
151%1.96X27%3.68222%4.57
Double chance
1X78%1.28X249%2.041273%1.37
Goals
Over 2.551%1.95Under 2.549%2.05BTTS yes53%1.87BTTS no47%2.15

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Wrexham · Columns: Preston North End4-1 probability 2.3% · final score

Form

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Head to head

Wrexham – Preston North End17 October 20264-1
Wrexham – Preston North End29 December 20252-1
Preston North End – Wrexham6 December 20251-1